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Case study

Traffic Modelling and Revenue Forecasts for Two Toll Urban Motorways in the Greater Beirut Area

Traffic Modelling and Revenue Forecasts for Two Toll Urban Motorways in the Greater Beirut Area
International Developer
Associated Firm
Transportation & Highway
1998 – 1999
Project Details

Narrative Description of Project:
TEAM International was entrusted to develop traffic and revenue forecasts for two urban toll motorways in the Greater Beirut Area. Our client is a major international consultant working for a large international developer who expressed interest in investing in the two BOT projects.

Based on transportation planning work and O-D surveys performed by TEAM International in the period 1994 – 1998 for the Greater Beirut Area, an emme/2 traffic model was developed. Interzonal trip exchange for the base year (1998) was derived from the results of the 1994 O-D surveys and adjusted to reflect the observed growth since then. The 24-hour total trip matrix was partitioned by purpose and period of day and each were subjected to matrix adjustment techniques in order that matrices best reflect actual measured link volumes.

Trip forecasts were developed through the year 2020. Generalized-cost (Vehicle Operation Costs – “VOC”, Value of Time “VOT”, and Tolls) multi-class assignments for various modal split scenarios were made. Network description included defining 13 volume-delay functions (VDF), covering various link operating characteristics. These assignments simultaneously treated various vehicle types during four time-of-day periods.

Several tolling strategies were investigated including open, closed and hybrid systems with flat and kilometric tolls for various time-of-day periods. Toll rates were based on the results of a Stated Preference (Intention) Survey whose results measured the potential users willingness to pay and its income elasticity for various trip purpose types.

Annual streams of revenues through the year 2020 were calculated. Sensitivity of results to possible variation in the assumptions and planning parameters was also conducted.